California’s 2025 almond harvest is predicted to come in at three billion meat pounds, according to this month’s California Almond Objective Measurement Report.
Published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS), estimates for this year’s harvest are up seven percent from a subjective forecast in May and 10 percent higher than last year’s crop of 2.73 billion meat pounds.
“The Almond Board is actively driving initiatives to stimulate demand around the world,” said Clarice Turner, president and CEO of the Almond Board of California. “While this year’s objective measurement estimate is higher than the industry expected, shipments remain strong. We are focused on innovation – expanding almond applications, reaching consumers through new channels, and opening markets around the world.”
The 2024 harvest yielded 2.73 billion pounds, 2.5 percent below that year’s objective report estimate, reflecting the difficulty of precisely forecasting crop size given the current fluctuations in weather and economic factors.
The report showed that the 2025 almond crop experienced variable weather during bloom, which began in early February and peaked in the middle of the month. Storms brought rain, wind and hail, which hindered bee hours and blossom growth. Conditions improved in early March with warm temperatures accelerating the crop’s progress through the end of bloom. Mild temperatures and timely rain in spring supported nut growth and continued through early summer, lessening heat stress in orchards. Also, lower than normal pest and disease pressure have been reported.
Harvest is expected to begin on time.
The USDA-NASS forecast yield is 2,160 pounds per acre, up from 1,980 per acre in 2024. The forecast for the average nut set per tree is 4,364, an increase of seven percent compared to 2024. The Nonpareil average nut set of 4,526 is nine percent higher than last year. The average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.6 grams, down 0.6 percent from the 2024 average weight. The Nonpareil average kernel weight was 1.6 grams, down two percent from the 2024 average weight.
The 2025 Objective Report is based on actual almond counts using a statistically rigorous methodology. The survey was conducted from May 24 to June 28 and 1,892 trees were sampled in 946 orchards.
This year’s forecast was the first to top three billion meat pounds since 2021, when it was 3.1 billion. Final production that year was slightly lower than forecast, at three billion meat pounds.
